A Critical Week for South Africa
As we start the week, South Africa stands at a crossroads. Will the ANC and DA manage to strike a deal, or will they fail? The stakes are high. If no agreement is reached, the consequences for South Africa Inc. are dire. Markets may initially panic, only to stabilize weeks later, but with a higher risk premium. The rand will struggle, and the cost of government debt will inch up.
The Need for Exceptional Leadership
In 1994, South Africa was a beacon of hope, emerging as a rainbow nation. Can our leaders be exceptional once again?
Back then, many societies couldn’t transcend history and hate, but South Africa did. The nation overcame a brutal history of racial subjugation, where one race oppressed another for centuries.
Historical Context and Its Impact
Today, 300 years of violent dispossession and 30 years of majority rule by the formerly oppressed frame South Africa’s attempt to negotiate a new truce. This new truce involves free people, including both the formerly oppressed and former oppressors.
The landscape is now more complicated. The former oppressors have fragmented and mostly aligned under the DA, while the formerly oppressed have governed for three decades. Initially, things looked promising, but the ANC allowed their leadership to falter, defending a president who became a wrecking ball.
Corruption and Resistance
During this period, many predicted South Africa would fall prey to the same corruption seen elsewhere. Unfortunately, corruption spread rapidly, affecting all levels of society. Organized crime took hold, and local bandits mimicked crime bosses, extorting shopkeepers and tavern owners.
Despite these challenges, South Africa remains resilient. Civil society, institutions, and businesses have fought back. The recent election results reflect this resistance, with the once-monolithic ANC reduced to a 40% minority. Voters chose opposition parties across the spectrum, ensuring that the ANC could no longer govern alone.
The Essence of South African Exceptionalism
South Africa’s exceptionalism lies in its diverse democratic choices. There are numerous political parties to choose from, a legacy of the country’s unique form of colonialism. Both the colonized and the settlers have become integral to the nation’s political fabric, making South Africa’s liberation story unique in post-colonial Africa.
Negotiations and the Weight of History
This week, as ANC and DA negotiators work to broker a deal, they carry the weight of history. The task is immense. The ANC must shake off criticisms of succumbing to white domination, while the DA seeks substantial roles in a government of national unity.
The crux of the negotiations lies in the division of cabinet positions, reflecting the election outcomes. Long-term, the challenge is to start a new chapter where no single party rules alone but seeks cooperation. Culturally, it is a significant ask for two such different entities to govern together.
A Hopeful Future
With faith, we must hope that this cooperation is possible. If the ANC and DA can rise to the occasion, South Africa may once again prove its exceptionalism to the world.